Surviving the economic crisis

It’s fair to say the headlines have made for some pretty sombre reading in recent months – "NZ unemployment to follow global rise", "Recession deepens", "Consumer confidence flags", "Economy faring worse than predicted".

On top of this, economists are warning of a weak local labour market throughout 2009 and the Treasury is predicting the unemployment rate will climb from its present level of just over four percent to a possible high of seven percent by the end of the year. In their latest update in February, Treasury officials predicted a likely fifth consecutive quarter of decline in the three months to March. 

Impact of economic downturn on jobs and career planning

Given this climate it’s not unreasonable for people to feel a little concerned about the economic situation and the impact this may have on job security, potential plans for finding a new job or starting a new career.

There’s no doubt the economic downturn has created uncertainty in the job market, as business confidence declines and households cut their spending. And yes, New Zealand is not immune to the global recession.

But is that reason enough to allow a sense of doom and gloom to pervade our collective conscience? Should we accept the constant negative spin espoused by the media until it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy?

The pessimism that exists in some quarters, coupled with some gloomy economic forecasts for the next year or two, should not detract from the fact that New Zealand has entered this global crisis in better shape than many other countries. Twenty-five years of sound public finances, the past 14 with Budgets in surplus, has certainly helped.

There's no doubt it's a more challenging time to be looking for work than it has been for a long time, especially for those people looking to enter the workforce for the first time. After all, we have a whole generation of New Zealanders who have grown up in a climate of full employment and choice. For many, this year will be their first experience of a softening economic environment. 

Resilience is key

For this reason, resilience, initiative, adaptability and confidence are all going to be essential tools for those seeking employment over the next 12 months or so. Employers will not be making employment decisions as quickly as they were previously because of the economic uncertainty. However, it's important to remember that employers will always employ good people if they need them, no matter what the economic climate.

In tough times, employers like people who have confidence in themselves and can show some initiative and adaptability. This may mean compromising on that perfect job scenario. For example, people may need to look at a portfolio of jobs (doing a collection of jobs) to create income streams, or lower their salary expectations. They may even need to think outside the box a little in terms of the transferability of their skills to other, related fields. In the present climate, employers are much more likely to focus on a person's skills than their work history.

Career resilience will be pivotal to finding the right job opportunity. Never has there been a greater need to plan well, research opportunities thoroughly, and make good decisions.

A useful starting point is a good understanding of the labour market, which can help you match your interests with industries or areas that are continuing to grow, despite the global crisis. While the downturn is affecting all industries, the most affected are those that have a high proportion of low-skilled and part-time workers. These include:

• manufacturing
• wholesale trade
• retail trade
• transport
• administrative and support services
• financial and insurance services.

Recent reports both here and in Australia say that areas particularly at risk are:

• car retailing
• international airlines
• real estate
• tourism.

What will the future hold?

It’s worth noting that not all jobs are at risk in the present climate. Industries that are population-driven will continue to see growth in employment in 2009. These include:

• the health sector
• education
• services that represent and help people (such as NZ Police, the Fire Service, and associations and interest groups).

All of these areas will continue to recruit staff.

Just when this economic crisis will end is difficult to predict with any certainty. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predict the global economy could recover by late 2009, provided commodity, oil and US house prices all stabilise, and credit conditions remain tight and prevent further failures of financial institutions.

And therein lies the issue for New Zealand. Although the longer term outlook for our economy is relatively sound, the key factor for New Zealand will be the global recovery.

Internationally, we have already seen governments attempting to minimise the damage caused by the downturn by propping up major corporations and giving tax cuts to consumers.

Last month, in an effort to insulate the country against the encroaching economic chill, the National Government followed the lead of Australia, the United States, Britain and others by announcing a $500 million stimulus package. This followed earlier announcements to introduce a tax relief for small and medium enterprises, and a recovery programme for people who have lost their jobs due to the recession.

The next year or two are going to present a range of employment challenges for people, whether they are entering the workforce for the first time, dealing with restructuring within an organisation, or facing the prospect of possible redundancy.

Get help if you need it

The best way to prepare for these uncertain times is to remain confident, upbeat and above all, resilient. And don’t be afraid to ask for help. There’s expert advice available to assist people with things like updating CVs, researching job opportunities and employers and preparing for interviews.

The Career Services website also has a number of useful tips for dealing with the current economic situation, as well as a section dedicated specifically to the issue of redundancy.

As we approach the next year, it may well be worth keeping these words from American historian, civil rights activist and musician Bernice Johnson Reagon in the back of your mind:

"Life’s challenges are not supposed to paralyse you, they’re supposed to help you discover who you are."